Precision
The ball arrives where it can be caught. In the NFL this shows up as completion percentage over expected, CPOE.
QB Data Driven
The road to the NFL, planned with data.
No quarterback developed in Europe has ever been drafted into the NFL, as far as we know.
Partner inquiry
mike@qbdatadriven.com
Each light on the field stands for one of 112 NFL quarterbacks.
The problem
In our data, athletic tests did not predict accuracy.
We checked the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill and shuttle of quarterbacks drafted 2016 to 2025 against NFL CPOE, college completion percentage and NFL completion percentage. None of the 15 correlations was significant.
- tests
- 15
- significant at p < 0.05
- 0
- quarterbacks per test
- 29 to 67
Bar chart: correlation r of 15 combine tests with 3 accuracy measures, N from 29 to 67 per test, none significant.
NFL CPOE
- 40-yard dash r +0.083 N 35
- Vertical jump r −0.213 N 36
- Broad jump r −0.017 N 33
- 3-cone drill r −0.025 N 29
- Shuttle r −0.031 N 30
College completion %
- 40-yard dash r +0.243 N 60
- Vertical jump r −0.217 N 67
- Broad jump r −0.22 N 63
- 3-cone drill r +0.05 N 55
- Shuttle r +0.042 N 56
NFL completion %
- 40-yard dash r −0.098 N 57
- Vertical jump r −0.036 N 62
- Broad jump r +0.068 N 58
- 3-cone drill r −0.043 N 51
- Shuttle r +0.074 N 51
For the timed tests (40-yard dash, 3-cone drill, shuttle), a higher value means slower.
Pearson r per test, drawn on the full scale of r: the further a bar reaches from the center line, the stronger the correlation. N is the number of quarterbacks in each test. With 29 to 67 quarterbacks per test, weak correlations cannot be ruled out.
Source: own analysis, NFL drafts 2016 to 2025.
All 15 values with p
| Combine test | r | p | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL CPOE | |||
| 40-yard dash | +0.083 | 0.6349 | 35 |
| Vertical jump | −0.213 | 0.2126 | 36 |
| Broad jump | −0.017 | 0.9248 | 33 |
| 3-cone drill | −0.025 | 0.8978 | 29 |
| Shuttle | −0.031 | 0.87 | 30 |
| College completion % | |||
| 40-yard dash | +0.243 | 0.0617 | 60 |
| Vertical jump | −0.217 | 0.0773 | 67 |
| Broad jump | −0.22 | 0.0829 | 63 |
| 3-cone drill | +0.05 | 0.7155 | 55 |
| Shuttle | +0.042 | 0.7572 | 56 |
| NFL completion % | |||
| 40-yard dash | −0.098 | 0.4666 | 57 |
| Vertical jump | −0.036 | 0.7839 | 62 |
| Broad jump | +0.068 | 0.6095 | 58 |
| 3-cone drill | −0.043 | 0.7642 | 51 |
| Shuttle | +0.074 | 0.6057 | 51 |
Lowest p across all tests: 0.0617.
Speed, agility and jumps describe the athlete. In our data they said nothing reliable about the throw.
Our answer
We train precision and processing speed.
Our athlete BB15 has trained since he was six.
Processing speed
Read the defense, decide, release. In the NFL this shows up, among other things, in the time to throw.
CPOE, in percentage points
Average time to throw, in seconds
Above the dashed line: more completions than expected. Below it: fewer.
Each dot is one quarterback, on purpose without names: every quarterback in our dataset with both values, not only those drafted 2016 to 2025. The chart shows how the two measures spread, not whether either one predicts success. The lights from the field are the same 112 quarterbacks.
Source: own analysis dataset.
The method
Every part of training has a reason.
Planned for the long term and documented as one record.
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Planning with reasons
Training is planned in phases, each with a stated purpose: what it develops, and why at this point.
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Data
Throw counts, hit rates and video are recorded. Curves follow once a validated method is in place.
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Load management
The weekly hours of his training plan are checked against two youth-sport limits: no more hours per week than years of age, and no more than 16 hours a week. The chart below shows the plan up to age 15.
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Mental work
Routines, focus and composure under pressure are part of the plan.
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A second sport
Basketball and other sports belong in the week. Variety builds the athlete and keeps the joy in the game.
Case study
BB15: a young quarterback, shown only as data.
BB15 is a quarterback from Germany who plays flag football and has trained since he was six. On this page you see his plan and his planned load, not his face. Clips of him are on his own channel.
His channel: @roadtonflbb15 (opens in a new tab)
How we handle his data
- Development curves only with their measurement method.
- Always shown with the weekly load: hours of organized training and days off.
- Never health or injury data.
- No comparisons with other children.
- We show his data only with the agreement of both parents, and he can veto any post.
Plan, not a measurement
Age in years
Plan with 6 training days and 1 day off per week. The chart shows his training plan up to age 15. Team practice and basketball are not included. His actual weekly total, including both, will be shown once it is recorded with a validated method.
Both limits come from our development path: no more weekly hours of organized sport than years of age (AAP, described as a possible rule) and at most 16 hours per week (Jayanthi, NSCA).
Next on this page: curves for throw counts and hit rates, each with its method.
The road to 2040
Step by step toward the NFL Draft 2040.
In phases, each one building on the last.
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Phase 01
Foundations
Mechanics, footwork and a broad athletic base.
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Phase 02
Processing speed
Read faster, decide earlier, release on time.
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Phase 03
Competition
Bring it to game day, under real pressure.
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Phase 04
Through the US and college
The path to the draft runs through the American school and college system.
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Phase 05
NFL Draft 2040
The goal: the first round.
The first round is a narrow door: in the 10 drafts from 2016 to 2025, 35 quarterbacks were picked in round one, 3.5 per draft on average.
35 in total
Source: own analysis of all drafted players 2016 to 2025.
Our mission
No quarterback developed in Europe has ever been drafted into the NFL, as far as we know. We are building that path step by step, since he was six, and documenting it as one long-term record toward the NFL Draft 2040. Planned with data and within youth-sport limits, and driven by his own love of the game.
For partners
Become part of the record.
For NeuroTech and sport-tech brands that want to see their product in a documented quarterback development.
- 01
In his training
Your product in his training routine, with documented performance data.
- 02
Case study rights
Rights to the case study on method and data. Not on the athlete as a person.
- 03
Joint content
Content together on Instagram, LinkedIn and this website.
- 04
Quarterly report
A report every quarter.
Only age-appropriate products such as software, balls and training equipment, each approved by his coach, sport scientist Michael Bialozyt.
Partnerships on request
No price list. We talk about what fits your product.
About
Michael Bialozyt
Sport Scientist M.Sc. · QB coach
Michael Bialozyt is a sport scientist (M.Sc.) and quarterback coach. He coaches BB15 and plans his development with data. His own analysis covers 10 NFL drafts: 2,565 drafted players, 120 of them quarterbacks.
- NFL drafts analyzed
- 10
- drafted players
- 2,565
- quarterbacks among them
- 120
Contact
One email is enough.
Partnerships, questions from coaches, players and staff: write to Michael directly.